• cedric lefebvre

Wednesday, 15th April 2020

Market news:

· LVMH unveiled a first quarter turnover of 10.596 billion euros on Thursday evening, reflecting a 15% drop compared to the first three months of 2019, and even -17% on a comparable structure and currency basis.

· 2019 dividends will be 30% lower than originally expected..The dividend for the 2019 financial year would be 4.80 euros instead of 6.80 euros per share originally planned. Considering the deposit of 2.20 euros distributed in December, a balance of 2.60 euros would be paid on July 9.

· Technicals: Lots of volatility jump back and forth on the 2860 level expecting a pull back to the 2500 level due to earnings reports.


Quote of the day: "The Covid-19 pandemic is now affecting the oil demand of many countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on needs, particularly in transport fuels" OPEC.

· The fleets of the airlines remain grounded and the measures containment around the world paralyze travel,

· OPEC expects consumption this year reaching 92.82 million barrels per day (bpd) worldwide, an "unprecedented" drop of about 6.85 mbd compared to 2019.

· It will be the first annual decline in world oil consumption since 2009 and the financial crisis.

· In an attempt to stem the plunge in prices, OPEC lowered production by 9.7 million barrels per day in May and June,

· Global crude demand is expected to tumble 12 million barrels a day in the second quarter from last year, before a modest recovery - with an expected decline of 6 mbd in the third quarter and around 3, 5 mbd over the last three months of the year.


Technical analysis

· The market will not be bearish unless we have a sharp decline below 2700, or two consecutive days with closes below 2700.

· Jobless claims nor economic data being as poor as they are, are not irrelevant. However, the absurd amount of money printing that the Fed has undergone will combat much of the poor economic data in the near-term.

For the markets to make lower lows something unforeseen and broad has to hit the markets, such as a second wave of COVID, etc. There's no doubt some stocks certainly haven't bottomed (i.e. financials) and certain sectors probably haven't either, but in the near-term (a few weeks) its highly unlikely we will make new lows in the broader market.

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