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  • cedric lefebvre

Tuesday, 14th April 2020

Period of quarter announcement. Expect the SP500 PUT position to pay off. Looking at 2200. Make an industry table and compute :

· Loss since January

· Expected bottom

· How COVID impacted the industry

· Any significant structural change after COVID

Opinion: The stock is up 77% so far this year, contrasting with losses around 14% for the S&P 500 index Last week alone, Shares of Tesla are Up 60%. Why is TESLA outperforming in a bearish industry?

Key stock driver: Number of vehicle delivered. 500,000 for Q2 2020. Not revisited after COVID-19 situation.

· Tesla’s production of nearly 103,000 vehicles for the quarter given factory shutdowns in China and California. Tesla produced 77,000 vehicles in the same quarter last year.

· Stock surge appears to be a case of “mean reversion,” as the stock had been “deeply, deeply” oversold after tumbling 22% in March, the worst monthly performance in seven years.

· Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries just a bit lower than consensus, which sent shares to double-digit gains in the extended session. It appears Tesla’s China production and demand are starting to rebound and should be a key growth driver over the coming quarters, although clear challenges remain in the months ahead.

· Cash burn in the near term must be watch.

· lt’s as a clear indication that EV demand had remained strong for Tesla well into the quarter, and that the company is well positioned to satisfy that renewed demand once the COVID-19 pandemic abates,”

Technical: As long as Tesla’s stock stays above the “critical support” of $390, the outlook is bullish.The $390 level is key support on the weekly charts because it is where the 200-day moving average converges with a breakout point from a multiyear resistance level.

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